Bold claim: the Padres already know who will make Opening Day, with only injury sneaks and last-minute surprises standing in the way. And here’s the nuanced truth you need to understand before the first pitch of the season.
Opening Day is three weeks away, so every MLB club is weighing final roster yesses and maybes. San Diego faces several near-certain decisions: the rotation still lacks a guaranteed No. 5 starter, the bullpen has more strong options than seats, and the bench remains unsettled. Even so, a sizable core is clearly set to be on the roster unless something unforeseen happens.
Position players who are essentially locks (8)
- Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Freddy Fermin, Ramón Laureano, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Gavin Sheets, Fernando Tatis Jr.
This group will form the backbone of the everyday lineup, with Sheets possibly resting against left-handed pitchers. They are the established regulars, while five additional position players will compete for steady playing time.
Pitching locks (8)
- Jeremiah Estrada, Michael King, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejón, Joe Musgrove, Wandy Peralta, Nick Pivetta, Randy Vásquez
King, Musgrove, Pivetta, and Vásquez are expected to anchor the top four spots in the rotation, leaving the fifth spot open for a battle.
In the bullpen, Miller is slated to close, with Estrada and Morejón as setup options. If healthy, Jason Adam belongs in the bullpen, and Peralta is already a lock.
The 99 Percenters (6)
- Luis Campusano
Backup catcher is a need, and Campusano is the only obvious depth option currently on the active roster.
- Miguel Andújar, Nick Castellanos, Sung-Mun Song
These three players are strong contenders for the bench, each on major league deals and well-positioned to claim at least occasional at-bats as the ninth hitter in games.
- Jason Adam
If he’s healthy after a ruptured quad, Adam is expected to serve as a primary setup man.
- David Morgan
Morgan appears close to locking down one of the remaining bullpen spots.
So, who’s left to decide? Assuming the 22 players above are confirmed, the Padres have four roster spots remaining: one bench spot, one rotation slot, and two bullpen slots.
Final bench candidate pool
- Jose Miranda, Bryce Johnson, Mason McCoy, Samad Taylor, Ty France, Will Wagner
Final rotation candidate pool
- Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales, Triston McKenzie, JP Sears
Final bullpen candidate pool
- Ty Adcock, Kyle Hart, Alek Jacob, Ron Marinaccio, Bradgley Rodríguez
Note: If healthy, a couple of high-upside relievers could still push for bullpen spots, and injuries or late developments could reshuffle the ladder at any time.
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