Global house prices are slipping again—but the story is far from simple. While the overall numbers show a mild decline, regional trends reveal a fascinating mix of resilience, recovery, and contradiction. And this is the part most people miss: behind the averages lie housing markets moving in opposite directions, reflecting deeper economic realities.
Key highlights
- Globally, real residential property prices fell by 0.8% year-on-year (yoy) in Q2 2025. That’s slightly less severe than the 1.0% drop recorded in the previous quarter.
- Advanced economies (AEs) continued to see growth in real house prices at 0.6%, although momentum slowed. Emerging market economies (EMEs), meanwhile, saw a smaller overall fall of 1.9%.
- Over 70% of AEs and half of EMEs still managed modest price gains between 0–10%.
- Since the 2007–09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Türkiye’s real house prices have surged more than twofold, while values in Italy, South Africa, and China remain below 2010 levels.
- The full dataset is available on the BIS Data Portal (https://data.bis.org/topics/RPP?mtmcampaign=RPPQ125&mtmsource=commentary).
Global overview
In Q2 2025, global house prices—adjusted for inflation—dropped 0.8% from a year earlier. While that’s a slight improvement compared to Q1’s 1.0% decline, it marks the third straight year of weakening prices worldwide. The long-run cooling trend shows no sign of fully reversing yet.
However, not all markets are following the same script. Advanced economies (AEs) continued to post positive real growth at 0.6%, though this is slower than the 1.1% seen in Q1. Emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a decline of 1.9%, narrowing the gap with AEs but maintaining their downward trajectory that began in 2022.
Asian EMEs carried most of the decline (–3.6%), while Central and Eastern Europe (+3.0%) and Latin America (+1.9%) showed solid growth. Among AEs, the euro area (+3.1%) and other European countries (+0.9%) remained in positive territory, yet non-European AEs—such as the U.S., Canada, and Japan—saw mild real declines (–0.8%).
Despite these headline declines, more detailed data tell a more balanced story: roughly 70% of AEs and 50% of EMEs posted some level of price growth (up to 10%) in Q2. A few markets—Portugal, North Macedonia, and Bulgaria among them—even saw double-digit growth above 10%. Across 57 jurisdictions, the median growth rate stood at a positive 1.7%, reflecting underlying strength beneath the surface.
Country-specific movements
Real prices jumped the most in North Macedonia (+16%), Portugal (+15%), and Bulgaria (+11%). On the opposite end, Hong Kong SAR (–8%), China (–6%), and Canada (–5%) recorded the sharpest annual decreases. Since the pandemic, overall global real residential property prices have climbed 3.5%. Türkiye stands out dramatically with a 112% surge since 2020, while the U.S. and Mexico both notched about 20% increases. China (–17%) and South Africa (–8%) went the other way, reflecting structural domestic slowdowns.
Looking back to post-GFC trends, real global property prices have grown by 20.6% compared with their 2010 levels. Türkiye once again leads this long-term chart, having more than doubled its real house prices, followed by strong gains in India, the U.S., and Mexico (each over 50%). By contrast, Italy (–25%), South Africa (–12%), and China (–9%) still lag behind their 2010 averages.
Advanced economies
Real home prices in AEs increased by 0.6% yoy in Q2 2025, continuing the modest upward movement that began mid-2024. Switzerland saw the strongest jump (+5.0%), followed by the broader euro area (+3.1%). Other major markets showed mixed trends: Japan remained flat (+0.2%), the U.K. slightly declined (–0.4%), and the U.S. continued softening (–0.8%).
Canada’s market stood out for its sharp decline, dropping 5.3%, suggesting that high borrowing costs are still cooling demand. Within the euro area itself, diversity reigns: Portugal’s 15% jump reflected persistent foreign investment and limited supply, while Spain (+10%), the Netherlands (+6%), and Italy (+2%) also reported steady gains. Germany finally saw mild growth (+1%) after multiple quarters of contraction, whereas France’s market nearly stabilized.
Emerging market economies
EME housing markets contracted less steeply than before, with an average 1.9% yoy fall. The steepest declines were in Asia, with Hong Kong SAR (–8%), China (–6%), and Korea (–2%) leading the downturn. Meanwhile, India (+1%) and Indonesia (–1%) hovered near stability, and Thailand (+3%) and the Philippines (+6%) showed renewed momentum.
Latin America’s real prices rose by 1.9%, largely due to Mexico’s robust 4% growth sustained over five quarters. Brazil’s prices stayed level. In Central and Eastern Europe, real housing values rose 3%, driven by North Macedonia’s remarkable 16% increase and Bulgaria’s 11%. Türkiye’s drop slowed to –2.5%, indicating a gradual correction after years of rapid appreciation.
In the Middle East and Africa, prices were steady (–0.1%), with South Africa showing early signs of stabilization for the first time since 2022.
Annex: Data notes
Real house prices represent nominal price movements adjusted for inflation. In Q2 2025, nominal residential property prices grew globally by 2.0%. The aggregated BIS figures cover a representative sample of advanced and emerging economies, weighted by purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates. Regional aggregates date back to 2007, allowing long-term trend analysis.
However, these broad regional averages can obscure distinct national trajectories. Major economies exert a disproportional influence, which can mask local dynamics—something clearly seen in markets like Portugal or Hong Kong, where prices are moving far from the global mean.
So, what do you think? Are global housing markets on the verge of recovery, or is this just a temporary pause before another correction? Could central banks’ monetary policies explain the widening contrast between regions? Share your perspective—does your country’s housing trend match the global data, or does it tell a different story?
