Buy & Sell 4/9 – Identifying Who to Add & Who to Drop
Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is “Don’t Panic. Capitalize on the panic of others.” If suddenly you find Luke Keaschall on your 12-team wire, or even the likes of Crow-Armstrong, just add now, spend big FAAB if needed, and assume it will turn around. After all, if these stats happened in mid-July, nobody would bat an eye. Then again, there are some stats that you absolutely must overreact to. You don’t want to play it safe and miss the next Hunter Goodman, after all, and fortune favors the bold. Bold, not impulsive! Tell me if you know what the difference is, I’m not sure I do anymore, but anyway, on to the list!
BUY
10-team
Jordan Walker (OF, St. Louis Cardinals)
- This is why you can’t just give up on elite bat speed guys. Especially when they’re still just 23 years old.
- Hitting .300 with 4 homers and a stolen base, Walker has sent people running to their waiver wires.
- Leading the league in exit velocity with an insane average EV of 98 mph, but has also improved his K% to a completely acceptable 27%, with 7 barrels to boot.
- 95th percentile sprint speed.
- Could be a younger Oneil Cruz with an arguably bigger runway in St. Louis and fewer platoon/contact concerns.
- Even if the speed doesn’t turn up, he could remain flawed and on a bad time but still hit for enough power to make a big impact.
Cam Smith (OF, Houston Astros)
- Similar to Walker as a post-hype sleeper who is still way too young and inexperienced to be dubbed “post-hype”.
- Off to a rip-roaring start hitting .300 with 3 homers and 3 SB, making the projections that all agreed he’d hit under 15 homers and under 10 SBs look a bit silly.
- 67% Contact%, 81% Z-Contact%, 29% CSW%.
- 46% Groundball% is still rather high.
- 77 mph bat speed is 98th percentile, with 93rd percentile sprint speed.
12-team
Mickey Moniak (OF, Colorado Rockies)
- On the IL, Mickey was fine, first day back he blew our minds.
- Hitting .278 AVG with 3 home runs in just 18 AB.
- Strong barrel rate similar to last year’s, leaning hard into flyballs and pulled balls (both 57% each) in his tiny sample.
- Could be a must-add in 12-team formats since a 30 HR 15 SB season is a real possibility.
Liam Hicks (1B/C, Miami Marlins)
- One of the most surprising FAAB adds of early April.
- Worked on adding power to his already excellent plate discipline in the offseason.
- 9% K% backed by an elite Whiff%, but also managing an above-average HardHit% and Barrel%.
- Could end up not too far off from Alejandro Kirk!
15-team
T.J. Rumfield (1B, Colorado Rockies)
- Still only rostered in 16% of Yahoo leagues, but I expect that number to rapidly climb.
- High-contact approach does well in Coors confines, and flashed big power this spring with a MaxEV of 113 mph.
- 25% CSW% and hits a lot of pulled flyballs.
- Could hit .270 with 15 homers, which would be quite useful.
Jesus Sanchez (OF, Toronto Blue Jays)
- Improved role security after Toronto’s litany of injuries.
- .300 with a homer, but .334 xBA and .542 xSLG.
- 99th percentile Launch Angle Sweet Spot.
- Better HardHit% than last year, has kept his improved 22% K%.
- Hitting cleanup against righties.
SELL
10-team
- Lawrence Butler (OF, Athletics)
- After a 2024 season that made us sure the breakout is upon his, he declined in every area last year.
- Contact%, which was 75% in his breakout year and down to 70% last year, has plunged to new depths at 65%, with an unacceptable 74% Z-Contact%.
- 47% HardHit% is not enough.
12-team
- Jordan Beck (OF, Colorado Rockies)
- With multiple benchings, he won’t be there to answer your every Beck and call.
- Hitting .080 with no homers in his first 27 PA.
- Contact rate is notably down at just 65%, and he’s definitely not hitting the ball hard enough (37% HardHit%) to make that work, even in Coors.
15-team
- Marcell Ozuna (UT, Pittsburgh Pirates)
- I really thought during draft season he was bound to bounce back, but it seems the new Pirate may soon be walking the plank.
- Hitting an abysmal .065 with no homers and just 1 run scored across 35 PA, good for a -23 wRC+.
- Exit velocity is way down, with a 30% HardHit% and a MaxEV of 105 mph down 7 mph from last year.
Deep Leagues
David Hamilton (2B/3B, Milwaukee Brewers)
- I was going to mention him as a 15-teamer, before seeing he’s only 4% rostered in Yahoo Leagues.
- Love that he’s hitting for more contact than ever (82%, with a 97% Z-Contact%), and drawing lots of walks.
- Could end up being quite Caleb Durbin-like, with more AVG volatility, but scrappy OBP and even more SB upside.
Ildemaro Vargas (2B/3B, Arizona Diamondbacks)
- He’s 34. He’s had a long career and averaged about 3 home runs a season.
- Off to a good small sample start, hitting .438 with a homer in 17 PA.
- Bat speed is up by 2 mph at a surprisingly decent 72 mph, and has a higher launch angle with 2 barrels.
Dishonorable Mentions
Samuel Basallo (C/1B, Baltimore Orioles)
- I normally don’t advocate worrying about Top 200 players in early April, butyeesh.
- Doing a repeat of his terrible 2025 debut, but with an even worse 38% K% (backed by a 66% Contact% and 19% SwStr%).
Jordan Beck (OF, Colorado Rockies)
- With multiple benchings, he won’t be there to answer your every Beck and call.
Lawrence Butler (OF, Athletics)
- After a 2024 season that made us sure the breakout is upon his, he declined in every area last year.
Marcell Ozuna (UT, Pittsburgh Pirates)
- I really thought during draft season he was bound to bounce back, but it seems the new Pirate may soon be walking the plank.
